Thursday, January 13, 2011

UFC 126 breakdown

UFC 126


Feb. 22nd will undoubtedly be an extremely exciting night of action, as UFC rolls into the Mandalay Bay Event Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event treats us with the highly anticipated showdown between Anderson Silva vs Vitor Belfort. As if that isn't exciting enough as is, UFC 126 also is set to entertain us with an amazing co main event of Forrest Griffin vs Rich Franklin. Thats not all though, the card also includes Jon Jones vs Ryan Bader, the UFC debut of Miguel Torres, as he takes on Antonio Banuelas. Thats not the only UFC debut either, Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone is set to take on the always dangerous Brit, Paul Kelly.
In this post I am going to break down the fights, and who I think will win and why. So let's get started.

Anderson Silva vs Vitor Belfort
what a fight! I don't even know where to start really. But I guess since the fight starts standing up, so will I.
Vitor Belfort definately poses the biggest threat yet to Anderson's title. Belfort has lightning quick hands, great footwork, good jiu-jitsu, and he finishes fights, usually in a highlight reel fashion. Without a doubt, if somebody at middleweight can put Silva away, it's Belfort.
His hands are definately better then Silva's, but Silva has a very well rounded standup game, including a wealth of muai-thai. Silva's kicks are going to be a factor, because he won't win a boxing match with Belfort. If he tries to, he will go to sleep quickly.
If Silva tries to clinch up with Belfort, I believe Belfort's strength should, for the most part, keep him outta trouble.
If the fight should hit the mat, I think that Silva will have a slight advantage there, but I am not convinced that Silva can submit Belfort, seeings he has not been submitted since 2005, and that was by the Strikeforce heavyweight champion, Alisaistar Overeem.
I feel that Silva has lost his sense of ergency in the octagon, and has kind of been in auto pilot in his last few fights. Vitor on the other hand has finished his last 2 fights in the first round, and both against very tough opponents, being Rich Franklin, and Matt Lindland.
Silva will be looking to avoid Vitor's strikes, and doing alot of moving around, while Vitor will press the action violently. In any given exchange Belfort could very well K.O Silva, so I personally feel that he will be winning this fight. I Can't say as to what rd. but I see this ending in TKO, and Belfort being the new UFC champ.

Forrest Griffin vs Rich Franklin
Here is a guarnteed slugfest fight fans!!! Forrest hasn't fought in a year, and is definately looking to come back in spectacular fashion. Rich is looking to make his run back at the title. These 2 will put on a dog fight, no doubt.
Standup, no edge to either fighter, other then speed, where Franlin owns a slight advantage. On the ground, nearly identical, but I would give just a slight edge to Griffin.
My prediction is these 2 will stand and slug for most of the fight. Rich is slightly more technical, but Forrest is a bit more tenacious. I see Forrest doing more damage for 3 rounds and winning by decision.

Jon Jones vs Ryan Bader
Here we have a matchup of 2 up and comers, getting very close to a title shot. Both are hungry to be a top five fighter, and after this fight, one of them will be.
This fight is the classic case of striker vs grappler. But what makes it interesting is that fact that the wrestler here, Bader, can knock you out with a single right hand, and the striker, Jones, is extremely hard to takedown, and posesses ground and pound of his own.
Call me bias for predicting the guy I have been saying to watch, but I'm calling Jones in this one.
I believe Bader is going to wear himself out throwing big punches at Jones, and missing most of them, and attempting to take Jones down. Bader has shown a lack of stamina in previous fights, as to where we are yet to really see Jones get gassed. As soon as Bader starts getting tired, look for Jones to turn up the heat and finish the fight, TKO. probably late in the 2nd or midway into the 3rd rd.

Donald Cerrone vs Paul Kelly
These two guys are vicious fighters with no quit in them. Cerrone's stand up is just as good as his ground game, and he is a rising star in MMA. Paul Kelly is a battle tested veteran whose quick powerful striking poses nightmares for any fighter in his weight class. I expect fire works in this bout, and this is a definate contender for fight of the night (though fight of the night will be hard to call with all the great fights on this card!)
Kelly will likely have a hard time really getting to Cerrone, because of Cerrone's height advantage and ability to use it. Cerrone will be countering alot, and breaking kelly down throughout the fight. If this fight goes to the ground, I don't anticipate Kelly doing alot of damage, given Cerrone's great jiu-jitsu. Kelly would likely have to get the fight standing where he has a chance of landing a knockout punch, or be forced to tapout.
I give an edge to Cerrone here, but not enough of an edge to say he'll win it with either a K.O or tapout. This fight is likely 3 rounds of pure action, with Cerrone doing enough to win a decision.

There are just a few fights that I am looking forward to. In all honesty, this is the first card I can recall where quite literally EVERY fight on the card is an amazing match. Aside from the fights mentioned above you have many other fights to look forward to such as, Miguel Torres vs Antonio Banuelas, Paul taylor vs Gabe Rudiger, and Kyle Kingsbury vs Ricardo Romero. From start to finish, this will be one of the biggest fight cards of the year. If you order only one UFC ppv this year, this may very well be the one, this is one your NOT going to want to miss, trust me!